12/9-12/10 STORM 2 Update Thread

By:  Lionel Hutz
December 10, 2009 8:00 am | Category: Weather

Since there is no good naming system for winter storms I’ll use numbers until you or I come up with something witty and workable. (Emphasis on witty). Thus this is the Storm 2 update thread.

10 AM 12-10 Update Well the NWS finally got on board the high winds blowing moisture into the greens and ‘dacks over the next 24 hours. Stop me if you read about that somewhere.

Anyway…here is the NWS Winter Weather ADV.

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
949 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

…LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY OF NEW
YORK…AND ALSO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING…

.PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH A LONG FETCH ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO HAVE PRODUCED A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

NYZ031-034-VTZ003-006-016>019-102300-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0015.091210T1449Z-091211T0000Z/
WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-
EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…DANNEMORA…LAKE PLACID…NEWPORT…
JOHNSON…STOWE…ENOSBURG FALLS…RICHFORD…UNDERHILL…
BRISTOL…RIPTON…EAST WALLINGFORD…KILLINGTON
949 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACROSS THE SPINE AND WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND ORLEANS COUNTY OF VERMONT…WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF ORLEANS COUNTY.

* GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE GREEN MOUNTAINS MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES WITH
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* SNOW IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS… WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS LATER THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF
MODERATE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES…AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO…YOUR LOCAL MEDIA…OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

——————————————————————————–

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
846 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

NYZ028>031-034-087-VTZ001-101600-
EASTERN CLINTON-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
GRAND ISLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PLATTSBURGH…STAR LAKE…
SARANAC LAKE…TUPPER LAKE…DANNEMORA…LAKE PLACID…
OGDENSBURG…POTSDAM…GOUVERNEUR…ALBURGH…SOUTH HERO
846 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

…A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT PARTS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK THIS MORNING…

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWS A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM
STAR LAKE TO SARANAC LAKE TO NEAR PLATTSBURGH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH
TOWARD SOUTHERN SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND INTO
NORTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK. THIS BAND WILL PRODUCE NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES…ALONG WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR. IN ADDITION…GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

$$

——————————————————————————–

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
442 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

NYZ026-027-030-031-034-110945-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-
442 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

…WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING…

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY

My take: I like it. Right now a band of heavy snow is smashing the tug hill and tickling the nw/adk. Mositure will be streaming west over the hills and wrung out as it hits the peaks. Honestly radar will not show this that well. Just be on the look out for mountain snow showers.

LES Focused Update In line with my previous comments, the NWS has issued lake effect snow warnings for the southern ADK hills. As will be the case many times this winter…if you know of some west facing lines down around indian lake, speculator, blue mountain area look at them this weekend. I would suspect this area will get a good blast over the next few days.

Not to leave the rest of the world out I think with the strong winds and direction of flow there will be snow showers (heavy at times) across the adk and the greens. Just not like in the southern ADK.

2:30 Update Dryslotted. Spotty showers, warm temps have moved into the north country. Some hills will still have pockets of snow around them. Northern VT looks to keep some precip going right now. Cold front sweeping through NW Pa. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM warnings out for buffalo area. Crazy powerful system going on here. Bascailly we had a huge powerful midwest storm spin off a coastal that sucked in a dryslot deeper and more powerful that originally forecasted (though not much. snow totals were close and prob. would have been dead on had the coastal low waited a bit longer to break away)

With that said temps drop tonight, lakes go off. I am beginning to think the best snow will fall from the lake effect in areas north of albany.

Stay tuned.
12:00 Update Dryslot in mid levels of the atmosphere is shutting down precip. Not sure how much made it to the ground in the dacks. Prob. something in the 4-5 inch range so far. Catskills went bascially all snow as the dryslot saved them a ton of rain. Really fractured the system. Currently coastal low should move out NE over the next 12 hours as the old primary low works its way back over the NY/CA border. Snow should continue in spurts in NY, with more in VT and plenty more in NH.

Update 10:00 am. Still snowing north of Albany. 4-5 so far in Kmart, southern VT looks similar. Catskills got into the 6-7 range now looks like some changeover to sleet but dryslot moving in.
Starting to get concerned about progress of dryslot. Like to see a little more rotation from secondary low to keep precip going all day in north country. Not ready to adjust snow totals yet.

With that said, currently the storm has given a heavy front end thump of snow to the Catskills with 5-7 inches reported area wide. Looks to keep snowing heavily there for a few more hours before we get into the sleet and freezing rain. Going to be close for the Catskills. Hopefully the heavy moisture slides east as a warmer dryslot moves in and snow totals stay high. Regardless we’ll see a nice net gain.

Snow starting to make it into central VT and the ‘dacks. Based on the heavy front end thump of snow in the catskills, I’m going to bump up snow totals just a bit in these areas. I’d say a dafe bet would be 6-10 inches of total net gain with the higher amts found on

    eastern

facing slopes. I highlight eastern because normally I look towards n/nw facing slopes. Personally I think the highest accums may be found on the east facing slopes of the western high peaks.

One word of warning- and I’m serious about this- the winds are going to BLOW. Trees will come down. If there is any ice, LOTS of trees will come down. Do not go into the woods today. Please. I don’t want anybody killed by limbs just because you need a powder fix.

After the storm the LES is going to crank. Tug still in the bulls eye but with strong winds they may get less as the moisture gets carried further inland. Look for some accums in the greens and ADK.

Related Stuff:

  1. UPDATED: Large Coastal Storm Set to Impact Northeast: Major Winter Storm “Baker”
  2. WED EVENING UPDATE: Full Size Candy Bars!! Winter Weather Event “Able”
  3. Rumors of Storms: Discussion of Early November Coastal Storm (UPDATED – scroll down-)
  4. October Nor’Easter: FKNA! (UPDATE!!!)
  5. Clipper storm brings snows to North Country
  6. Potential Xmas weekend Nor’Easter (X-mas Eve Update)

22 Comments

  1. Joann
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 10:16 am  
    1

    Great weather explanations – thanks.
    9 a.m. 12/09/09 – 22 degrees with high winds blowing heavy snow here in Lake Placid, near Mt. Van Hoevenberg. No woods skiing today.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  2. Doremite
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 10:52 am  
    2

    LH:

    Any thoughts on the presence of slight at higher elevations of the northern greens this afternoon/tonight. Winds dying down by….?? Am I allowed to still hold out hope for Lake Effect @ Jay through Friday night???

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • Lionel Hutz
      wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 11:10 am  
      3

      D-
      Elevation will not really help fend of sleet. The warming that produces sleet occurs at levels of the atmosphere where elevation doesn’t matter.
      Why would you disregard hope for lake effect for jay. The entire area will beneit from strong winds off the warm great lakes.
      Winds will still gust tomorrow thought nowhere near as bad as today. Tomorrow will just be windy. Today will be absurd at times.

  3. Doremite
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 10:53 am  
    • Doremite
      wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 11:54 am  
      5

      LH:

      Thanks. Previously you had noted the chance of Lake Effect on the back side of this storm but wind direction would dictate the beneficiaries. I was asking if you see Jay being on of those beneficiaries over the next couple of days. I’m hoping they see like a foot plus today through Friday to set up the weekend nicely.

  4. W. Petrics
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 12:15 pm  
    6

    At 2300 ft just above the base of Pico it’s 20 degrees, very windy & snowing heavily. Located just above the Sherburne Pass the wind has to be sustained at 25mph w/gusts over 50. Bill P. Good Storm!

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • Greg
      wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 3:16 pm  
      7

      Thanks for checking in Dad! Keep the updates coming!

      This is one heck of a storm

  5. Greg
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 3:16 pm  
    8

    I just want to add that this beast has dropped .84 inches of melted equivalent on the summit of Mt. Washington based on the most recent report, and that the temperature DROPPED during this time frame to sub 10 degrees.

    Can anyone say “baker’s meter?”

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  6. Lionel Hutz
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 3:25 pm  
    9

    MTW looks to get clobbered.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  7. MICKY O
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 3:26 pm  
    10

    Worcester got about 6 inches of snow… I want to ski

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  8. Greg
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 3:27 pm  
    11

    With these winds alone the alpine gullies will be buried… Add in the upslope potential that place has on a WSW wind… oh my!

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  9. W. Petrics
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 5:26 pm  
    12

    Still snowing lightly @ Pico Vt. @ 4:24 12/9/09. At least a foot or more of snow. Never had any sleet or rain. 27 degrees with very large drifts.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  10. Harvey44
    wrote on December 9th, 2009 at 10:24 pm  
    13

    You guys called it with the cold hanging in over the Adks and the dry slot saving the day. 12″+ at Gore with a touch of mank in at the end to keep the wind from blowing it away. Exactly what we needed.

    Still snowing up there tonight.

    It’s a long haul to Gore for Lake Effect (terrain-wise), but I think we’ve got a shot at some of it.

    Go December!

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  11. Harvey44
    wrote on December 10th, 2009 at 11:03 am  
    14

    PS – Lionel – I think YOU should start naming the Storms. Be the trend setter. Either go with the alphabetical thing …. or something else creative.

    Or if you want to use numbers … go with something univeral – that maybe includes the year? 09-2?

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  12. Joann
    wrote on December 10th, 2009 at 12:29 pm  
    15

    Whiteout conditions in Lake Placid at 11:30 a.m. 12/10/09. Will try the woods later this afternoon; maybe the wind won’t be so dreadful.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • Doremite
      wrote on December 10th, 2009 at 3:07 pm  
      16

      LH:

      Storm warning through 7:00PM but seeing strong winds in the central/northern Greens for next 36 hours. Any thoughts on when they might die down a bit? Jay just stopped spinning lifts and currently trying to plot a course north. Like to go tonight but fear if these gusts should stick around for the next 24 hours, nothing will spin tomorrow either? Any sense on when they might dissipate?

  13. Lionel Hutz
    wrote on December 10th, 2009 at 3:12 pm  
    17

    Doremite:

    I think the winds will ease enough to run lifts by friday afternoon. But winds are tricky and whether a hill decides to run the lifts or not is really a function of how the wind hits that hill, that lift. It’s a micro climate thing.
    For example- @ WF – any moderate w/sw wind shuts down the gondola because the wind funnels up wilmington pass and slams right into tower (oh i forget the number)….

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • Doremite
      wrote on December 10th, 2009 at 3:19 pm  
      18

      Thanks, LH. Note taken and makes perfect sense. Not that anyone cares, but a 2:00 work related call is scheduled to cut into my afternoon of fun. Just venting… and another x-factor to wrap into my own personal dilemma. I think we all know the answer.

  14. Canadian Hiker
    wrote on December 10th, 2009 at 6:21 pm  
    19

    Was close to Jay, windy as hell over there. Skied two Canadian local hill. Owl’s Head, first tracks and great snow. Sutton thousands over there. At least a foot.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • Canadian Hiker
      wrote on December 10th, 2009 at 6:26 pm  
      20

      *Sutton thousand of people over there. Sutton will cost 5 dollars to ski thursday december 17

  15. Joanne
    wrote on December 10th, 2009 at 11:09 pm  
    21

    Good call on the lake effect snow… It’s even dumping in the Jackson right now!

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  16. bushman
    wrote on December 11th, 2009 at 9:09 am  
    22

    Doremite & Co:
    8:00 AM Friday @ Jay Peak. Snowed about 10″, drove through white-knuckle blinding stuff on 91 N just below St J about 8:00 PM, made it. Snowed another inch or so this AM. Very, very windy. JP web site @7:30 says only thing running right now is Tbar (dinky) for $10 but once winds die they will run Jet chair and u can upgrade icket. I’m looking out on Instate, main trail. they ran the Metro quad a little this AM but are going from tower to tower knocking snow and ice off pulleys. Looks like they go 1 foot+ pow, then a little rain, then 10″ on top. So Ullr answered my wish for creating a base.JP says if things go as planned they may open Tram over weekend. They have the snow. Winds are the proble. Saw yesterday Patrol opened 22 trails. So, if they do open more, it will be unskied stuff. Hey, I’m satisfied for 2nd week of running to be in this much snow.Will update tonight and tomorrow AM.

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