Major Winter Storm “Easy” (LIVE UPDATING)

January 12, 2012 9:38 am | Category: Weather | 43 Comments | Permalink

Friday Jan 13th 5pm Update

Ok Act III. Upslope snow over next 12 hours will be the story of this storm. We’ve gotten between 5-8 inches of cumulative snow since Easy started with a few pockets of more. It has fallen in a creamy dense consistency and now it’s dumping snow up and down the Spine and on a strong 260 degree wind.
Digging closer we see tremendous upward motion between about 5pm and midnight.

With deep level saturation:

and decent snow growth temps through the layer of upward motion

We should see VERY solid snowfall rates between .5 and 1.5 inches an hour depending on the dendrite growth.

I think when all is said and done we will be well into that 6-12 range I originally forecasted and like I said below somebody is coming away with 18 total. This pattern tonight DEF has the possibiltiy of popping off and dropping an additional 8-12 of snow somewhere along the spine. AND if you want my suggestion as to where that might be…well I’d say somewhere between MRG/Bush/the Midd. Snow Bowl / Kmart. Seriously…it’s running that way for sure.

Friday Jan 13th, 9:30AM update
So Here comes Acts II and III of Easy.

Right now a strong low has developed with it’s surface center just off the NY border north of Watertown. Here is the 850mb meso analysis of the system.

It will track northeast across the border over the next 10-12 horus. As it does it will push a strong cold front through the region ( Marked in yellow) Strong southerly winds out ahead of it in VT and NH are keeping mid level temps just a notch above freezing. (Red arrows to east of yellow).
To the west of the front strong winds from the west are whooshing in a lot of cold air and entraining significant moisture. Noted in the red streamlines in western NY there is also a large degree of convergence behind the front from these winds. That will grealy aid in uplift and convective precip.

Overall once that front pushes through we’ll see snow and falling temps. Heaviest snows are going to be in the ADK, and Greens from KMart to MRG. Stowe/Jay might get shadowed a touch from this pattern.
As the winds really stay westerly…the upslope machine kicks in around 10pm tonight with possible a very heavy period of like 2 inches per hour snowfall rates.

Overall I’m going with 3-8 inches additional today.

Jan 12th 12:45PM update:

Storm has started to bring rather steady snows to the Greens over the last few hours. Waiting on reports from the ADK. So far looks like as expected the WAA on the east of the storm has brought a solid 3-5 inches in southern sections of VT and Mass and it’s still snowing. Storm isn’t that well organized and starting to merge into one large low blob. Which is ok. looks like the 12z suite of high res models is handling this well.

Speaking of, I’m now tuning into that period from Friday thru saturday morning. Looks like we’ll see .75 to 1.25 inches or water from Friday morning through Saturday morning along the ADK and Green spine.

and

Certainly some of this will fall as mixed precip (sleet, ice and drizzle) over the day on friday. However, as I’ve discussed below much of this will fall as snow during the later hours of friday and early saturday morning.

Jan 12th 9:38AM update: So this is where we currently stand:

you can clearly see the double low structure that I referenced in the write up below.

Because I don’t have a ton of time I will lay out how this plays out based on the current data and model forecasts.

First today we’ll see that primary low track to the northeast. It will bring light snows to VT, and Northern NH. Heavier snows will fall in central NH and Maine.
Generally there will be a few inches along the ADK and greens – with more on the eastern slopes. Following that light snow, freezing drizzle and misty type precip will reign tonight thru tomorrow midday. Then, that second low – having deepened- will push through. This will be imo the real story and snow maker. The upslope signal is strong from friday night thru midday saturday. With dropping temps snow growth will be right side up so what falls will go from dense to very light by saturday.

Overall I’m still sticking with this being a total 6-12 type event for much of the mountains of the northeast. I made this comment privately and I’ll make it here. If you don’t get above 2500ft you will think this storm is a bust. It’s just going to be that way. Take your time, let it play out and don’t judge it by what falls on your car when it’s parked in the driveway.

ORIGINAL POST from January 10th:
Nope- no intro this time. (Well maybe a short one…if you read “Easy” and don’t think of “Easy Company” 506th Regiment, of the 101st airborne you have not scene the greatest Television series of all time and possibly the best depiction of American men on the Western Front during World War II: HBO’s 10 part epic Band of Brothers. There is little more to say than watch this now. I promise you it will be the best 10 hours you spend this year.)
Back to the weather:
Beginning on Thursday, and running through early Saturday, the North Country has the potential to see a heavy dose of Snow with some rain mixed in.

At its base level “Easy” is a storm complex formed by the interaction of two separate systems. First a moist storm moving out of the south (A) and a cold trough moving out of the northwest/Alberta (B).

Models wanted to merge- or phase- these two pieces a number of different ways of the past week. Slowly however it’s seemed a consensus has emerged. Generally it is agreed that by wednesday the southern low will be over Virginia and the northern energy will be developing a storm over the great lakes.

This is the moment it gets “interesting.”

Models have a very hard time with the complex interaction between lows and frankly so do forecasters. There are just a lot of moving parts and wind shifts/temperature changes. TO accurately predict what will happen tends to focus more on the “art” rather than the “science.”
Generally however it seems pretty clear that these storms will not totally phase but rather link in a rather unique way. (from the Euro)

Nor often when something like this happens one of the lows takes over as the primary low. Usually that’s the coastal low given how cyclones form. That however doesn’t seem like it’s going to happen. Rather all the major models want to skirt that primary low off to the east while still dragging the second low up into Canada.

– Of course as soon as I publish this the 12z NAM for 1/10/12 comes out and just decides it wants to make that primary low the story. According to the NAM the Greens and ADK a solid 8-10(+) of snow will fall on thursday, FOLLOWED by the passage of the second low with waves and impusles sparking snowfall through saturday. DO I buy this soluition totally…well not quite…read on…

With that said, I think the following plays out…
1) The primary (or southern low) tracks up into southern NY state. VT and the ADK seen WAA snows on the “front end” with a passage to some mixed precip and periods of heavier snow on Thursday.
2) As that primary low moves east, the lagging more vertically stacked “secondary” low- the northern low will slowly drag across the ADK/Greens Thursday night and Friday. While the models don’t throw a ton of moisture out, I think there is plenty to be had. Once the high res models come in line I’d not be shocked to see enough water to get us to a foot of snow. These lagging moist lows are just great for the greens.
3) A weak impulse may ride up a secondary front associated with this second low late Friday. That would spark additional snowfall in Vermont- esp. southern and central VT.
4) As the second low moves out into Maine, we’ll see a period of solid upslope snow from Friday to Saturday.

So what snowfalls are we looking at? Overall- when all is said and done I think it’s VERY possible somewhere along the Green Spine and ADK will be over a foot with the potential to get into the 18 inch range if that second low tracks a little south right over the spine. Otherwise I think this is a solid 5-10/6-12 type event
across much of the North Country (at elevation). Further south I think southern VT could fall in that 4-8 range. Interestingly a low level moist easterly flow at the outset may spike snowfall rates in the Whites putting MTW in that 6-12 range.
-Maine Bonus: On the advice of a wise friend, I’d like to add that the Sunday River/Sugarloaf region could get a real hammering as well. During the first lows life, a strong southeast flow off the ocean will develop and funnel moisture right into Maine. Should be cold enough for snow at both SR and the Loaf. The result will likely be a 8-16 inch snowfall event for them by friday afternoon.

Caveat Conclusion: This is a very complex event that models have not handled well at all and I think there are some assumptions that just might not play out. Am I totally confident this stays all snow? Nope. Not at all. Am I confident that Easy isn’t just another warm rain storm? Yes. We’re going to get snow out of this and somebody along the spine is going to get a fair (possibly VERY FAIR) amount.

I’ll keep you posted.


Behind The Schuss(ic)

January 9, 2012 8:42 am | Category: General Interest, Quick Update, Skiing | 7 Comments | Permalink

People often ask us: “how does one go about famous internet skiing?” Well, today all of your questions will be answered. You see, this past weekend–lucky for you–the cameras were rolling, documenting the madness behind the schuss(ic).

Q: How do you get such bright clothes out on the hill all the time?

A: A lot of folks think we get love from Backcountry.com or Columbia Sports. The truth is though, we mostly ski in pajamas.
skiing in pajamas

Q: How do you forecast the weather so insanely accurately?!

A: We don’t just forecast the weather… Lionel actually makes it on occasion.
Lionel making weather

Q: How is it possible that you are constantly the raddest skiers and riders on the mountain?

A: Constant vigilance…
raddest rider on the mountain

…fresh wax daily…
fresh wax daily

…and tail gunning.
tail gunning

Q: How is FIS so incredibly pertinent in all times and eras?

A: We’re constantly checking Twitter for trending topics to match our stoke with the pulse of the nation as seen here.
matching our stoke to the pulse of the nation

Q: Did one of the FIS shoot the photo on the cover of Abbey Road?

A: No. We were on the short list, but at the last second our shot got scraped, and our idea was stolen by Paul and photographed Iain Macmillian. What a buncha jerks.
Abbey Road?

Hopefully that answers all your questions. I really can’t think of anything else off the top of my head. Thanks for reading FIS!


Why not another weekend outlook?

January 6, 2012 11:40 am | Category: Weather | 9 Comments | Permalink

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Welcome to January. My favorite month of the year. You know you’ll hear a lot of talk about “how bad this winter has been.” Admittedly it got off to a rough start with a very warm November and warm first 10 days of December. But if you look based your established bias you’ll see that we’ve actually caught up. Over on Mansfield we are approaching average depth at the stake and Stowe has reported fresh snow every day since like the 16th or something. So while we were all getting our Icebreaker Women’s Balance Briefs ($15.97 down from $25) in a twist, winter sorta, kinda, maybe showed up…like a little bit. Maybe.

In all seriousness however I think winter DID show up. Or at least pulled is car into the driveway. With some indication that we’ll see teleconnections turn favorable for us in the medium range, and the generally positive pattern we’ve seen over the last 3 weeks, I think we might be in store or something resembling winter. Does that mean “EPIC NOR’EASTERS BRO!”? No. Likely not. Rather I think we’ll start to see seasonal temperatures with reasonable winter chances for snowfall.

Friday: As I write this a weak low is in the great lakes and pushing a warm front through the area. Warm Air Advection snows this morning brought a dusting to 2 or 3 inches across the mountains of the ADK Greens and Whites. Generally in the wake of the front, temps will be a about normal with highs in the 20s. We’ll see spotty snow showers on and off under cloudy skies. Winds will not be too much of a concern today.

Saturday: The primary weather story this weekend will be the passage of a weak clipper like system to our north. Starting tonight the low will skirt along the Canadian border and move east by Sunday am. On Saturday, the rather dry low will spark a few light snow and/or mix showers. The bigger story will be the winds ahead of the system. While not really impressive over the ADK and Greens (25-35), it’s possible that as the day progresses we’ll see sustained 50-60 over on MTW. Precip as noted will be generally light. Best chances for sustained elevation snow would be northern Greens as that is closest to the best dynamics and likely to remain cold enough.

Sunday: Once the low moves off to the east on Saturday night it will push a cold front through the region. Temps will fall back into the seasonable range (lows in the single digits and teens) sat night. A slightly moist and slightly lake moisture enhanced nw flow will also develop. The result will be sustained snow showers Sunday across the mountains. Again in these patterns the Green spine does the best because of spine is generally a uniform cross barrier to the prevailing flow. Overall by Sunday night it’s possible that a few spots along the spine (Jay Peak for example) get into the 4-6 range. The snow should be pretty fluffy and light as good snow growth temps abound. The other notable weather story Sunday will be the chance for some high winds – sustained 55-70 gusting above that on MTW. With new snow and two days of high winds be wary and use caution over there.

Looking Ahead: You are going to hear a lot of talk about some big system inbound late next week (Thursday). And while there is some truth this story -lets be reasonable. A few model runs ago, a wet low emerging from the south was progged to phase with a dry and cold shortwave dropping out of Canada. The resulting phased storm was modeled to phase at the right point so as to make the turn inside the benchmark. This is a recipe for some big-time fun. However, subsequent runs have backed off the phasing OR phased the system faster, resulting in a deep powerful low that tracks into the great lakes. I favor this warmer model solution right now but am on this event and will be updating here at FIS/weather.


Red Peaks at Morning, Schussers Start Touring

By: Greg
January 2, 2012 9:22 pm | Category: General Interest, Quick Update, Skiing | 2 Comments | Permalink

The weather has been tricky recently. Last week a strong low pressure system passed to our west drawing warm air and rain into New England, and ruining the Christmas weekend snow only a few days after it had fallen. As the low departed though, a moist northwest flow setup, and provided the needed ingredients for orographic or “upslope” snow (and incidentally, this TR) last Thursday and Friday. Then, just this past weekend, a “clipper-like system” approached from the northwest, and promised to bring snow in double digit amounts, only to flop at the last second, and instead deliver a rather “trying” three day wet-warmup. When high powered computer models fail to forecast a major low pressure system even remotely accurately within 24 hours, that’s when you know it’s a weird winter; that’s when you know you need to go back to some of your ancient adages to guide you in your search for powder schuss. One of my favorites is:

Red peaks at morning, schussers start touring.

Bingo!
Jesse Schloff Photo of Mount Mansfield in alpenglow January 2nd 2012
(Special thanks to friend of FIS, Jesse Schloff for the shot!)

OK, I know what you’re thinking: “Greg, you just made that up by tweaking the more familiar, and actually ancient adage.” Well you’re right. You know what I didn’t make up though? A great day of skiing, and that’s what it’s all about.
a great day of skiing

Lake effect snow (and amazingly, not much of it) is to thank for today.
lake effect snow is to thank for today

As we learned in VTah Part III, these bands of lake effect snow are tricky beasts to forecast; they can swing a hundred miles north or south in Vermont due to a change in a half degree in the wind angle over Lake Ontario. The models are almost certain to be wrong when they predict LES. That’s why, if what you seek is The Pow, it’s best to stick to the adages (or was that “edges,” as in edges of the trails?)…
stick to the adages

…and, of course, keep reading FIS! ;)


TR: Resolutions

By: Greg
January 1, 2012 2:59 pm | Category: Full Trip Report, Skiing | Permalink

I’m young, and immature, but I try hard. Indeed, I know that I can do better, and so to keep myself honest, here’s a list of resolutions for the New Year; as per advice I heard on a talk radio program, I began adhering to these before the actual New Year. Supposedly you are more likely to stick with your resolutions if you start before the new year. Anyway, here we go:
Click here to read the full Trip Report!
Click the picture or here to read Resolutions


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