HIKE WEEK: NIGHT HIKE?

By:  Lionel Hutz
August 3, 2010 1:25 pm | Category: HIKE WEEK, Weather

So apparently you might be able to see the Aurora Borealis on wednesday night. That’s cool. Just one problem…it hasn’t been that sunny recently! Last time I checked you can’t really see this thing through a cloud deck. So, since I’m the weather guy, G asked me “to tell him where to drag his butt to at 3 in the morning so that he could see the lights.”

Since I have work to do today, I easily agreed. After looking at the Auroral activity forecast, I appears that that the 36 hours from Tuesday night through early thursday morning will be the best time to catch a glimpse of the light show.

Looking at the latest data right now we see that the MOS guidance is putting this out for SLK
DT /AUG 3 /AUG 4 /AUG 5 /
HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06
X/N 80 59 84 60 84
TMP 69 73 77 77 73 66 62 61 67 77 82 82 75 67 64 62 68 78 81 72 57
DPT 66 65 64 65 65 63 61 60 65 66 64 64 65 64 62 60 64 65 63 61 55
CLD OV OV OV OV BK BK BK OV OV BK SC FW SC CL OV OV OV OV SC SC OV

Pay close attention there to the FW, SC, CL. That means Few, Scattered and Clear skies are forecasted. Looking at the corresponding hours we see that it is wed. into thursday. Perfect. Same time as an active period in the northern lights. Sadly, however much of the rest of the region is under BK (broken) or OV (overcast skies). One real caveat might be MTW. While the models indicated BK and OV skies, the LCL and mixing ratios might allow for the summit to peak above the clouds. That’s a really tricky thing to figure (well at least tricky for me!) so if you are willing to ascend into a cloud and stay there, maybe check MTW out.

Looking at a few more models supports the conclusion that you best bet might be the SLK region (Ampersand Mtn has a nice bald summit.)

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3 Comments

  1. Greg
    wrote on August 3rd, 2010 at 1:27 pm  
    1

    Thanks Lionel… you da man

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  2. Sam
    wrote on August 3rd, 2010 at 7:33 pm  
    2

    Any thoughts on aurora potential for the PNW?

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • Greg
      wrote on August 3rd, 2010 at 8:37 pm  
      3

      Impossible to tell…. The explosion of rays on SUNday was broadly aimed for… EARTH. Hard to forecast cosmic flares more accurately than at a planet sized resolution…

      That said, having seen a bunch of Auroras back in 2001, and having been on top of the forecasts back then (although sans camera–so no pictures), I can tell you that if it’s clear, this place says solar activity is above a 4, and you’re north of 45 degrees, you’re in real good shape to see some cool neon blobs in the sky. So your best bet is to just pay attention to the infrared satellite late late tonight, and see if it’s clear out or not.

      Sadly after a surprise afternoon clearing today which got my hopes up for clear skies tonight, VT is heading back into thundershowers right as it’s getting dark… :(

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