UPDATED 2/29/12: Winter Storm “Gamma” (With a nod to the real VTAH – utah)

By:  Lionel Hutz
February 27, 2012 6:16 am | Category: Skiing, Weather

Have fun this weekend?
I did. I also got in a fight over Shot-Bloks but that’s a story for another time. (FYI don’t touch G’s Shot-Bloks.)

So quick and dirty- more snow might be on the way. here are “Lionel’s Quick Thoughts”:
Today and tonight a large piece of energy will swing into the state of Utah. With a northwest flow and significant instability I think Little Cottonwood and Big Cottonwood Canyond could see 1-2 feet of new snow by tomorrow afternoon.
This energy will jecting out of the west and deepen over the great plains wednesday. As it does it will spin off a cold front where a second low will form. This whole complex should move eastward through late wednesday and thursday. It’s too early to discuss what falls where but I will lay out a few key thoughts. 1) That second low development is huge. It will work to keep cool upper elevation air locked in as the first low moves to the east. If it doesn’t form we’ll get moderate rain followed by snow. 2) We’ll see warm air advection snows through the catskills, ADK, VT and NH followed by a dryslot. wednesday into thursday. 3) Low elevations will get a wet event out of this by thursday as the 850mb isotherm should hang well into southern/central VT. Anything below 2500ft shouldn’t be THAT snowy (at least according to models right now). 4) We’ll again see the trailing vertically stacked second low work across the region. This happened with “Easy” and this happened with “FOX.” If the temps are right, this pattern makes a pow. Right now I think we are looking good for a another 6-12 inch storm for the Mountains of the ADK, Greens and NH.
Now what could screw this up- no second low, this thing amplifies, pumps warm air up into the region and we get rain, freeze, dust on crust upslope. OR the whole complex dives to the south and the Catskills gets hammered and the Nothcountry gets nada.

So check back to FIS for updates on “Potential Winter Storm Gamma” AFTER you read this.

UPDATE as of 12:55pm Tues. February 28
Did you read about VTah VI yet? Yea? You want more? Good. So here is the story.
We’ll see a two low event move into the N/E on wednesday and continue into thursday. First as noted above, a low will deepen and elongate in the center of the country. A piece of energy will break off and slide along a frontal boundary to the south – right about the PA/NY line. This first wave will bring the catskills and berks some snow. Then trailing that will be a somewhat vertically stacked low will move through the Northcountry. That’s going to the primary snow-maker I think. Given the location and route of these lows we’re looking at a classic upslope enhanced storm. It doesn’t look too wet on models but as I’ve said before….stacked lows drifting over the N/E mountains- esp the green spine = pow.

Looking at the maps below I think we’ll see overall totals in teh 6-12 inch range. Heaviest snow should fall in the central greens. There is a caveat with the use heaviest. Given the temp profiles you could see like a solid 8-10 inches of thicker snow at K-mart while you see 10 inches of fluff ’round MRG and ‘the bush. So I guess what I’m saying is be shocked if temp profiles actually result in the northern greens getting more inches… I think the ADK could get into that 6-12 range as well. The whites prob. get in the 4-8 range.
The hardest area to predict is the catskills. Going to be plenty of moisture down there. If cool air holds at 850mb this could be a very very good storm system for them. It’s going to be close and likely a last minute now-cast. Stay tuned.

UPDATE WED. 2/29
Not much in my thinking has changed. First piece of energy drives over NY/Conn/Mass bringing some elevation snows to Catskills and berks and So. VT thru tonight. Larger piece of energy then slides through north of that track drifting over central NY and VT. Going with a widespread TOTALS falling in the 6-12 range for almost all NY Mountains?Whites and VT Mountains. Going to be a few pockets of heavier qpf through central and southern VT but thermal profiles might mean total inches play out about the same. Some signs of upslope enhancement in the nor. greens as of late but i’m not sold on it enough to move off that 6-12 call.

Tags:
, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Related Stuff:

  1. Major Winter Storm “Fox” (REVISED FORECAST)
  2. Winter Storm Outlook: Weekend of Feb. 4-6 (UPDATED)
  3. Mid-Week Storm Complex to Bring Snow to Northeast (Wed Update)
  4. Major Winter Storm “Easy” (LIVE UPDATING)
  5. UPDATED Do you like your turkey warm or cold: Outlook for Winter Storm “Charlie”
  6. Looking Towards Thanksgiving Week….WINTER STORM POTENTIAL UPDATE

11 Comments

  1. Adam
    wrote on February 27th, 2012 at 1:47 pm  
    1

    Thanks for the great forecast with Fox. Wouldn’t have made the trip up to Smuggs otherwise. Now looking forward to Gamma! Do have to take issue with the storm screwing things up by diving south into the Catskills. I know our mountains are wee, but we are on the East Coast. And I’m sure you’ve got other readers champing at the bit for a pow day at Plattekill.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
    • Lionel Hutz
      wrote on February 27th, 2012 at 3:16 pm  
      2

      I should be more clear. Sorry. I love the catskills. P-Kill is awesome. Skis as well as any hill I’ve been at. Did quite a few Hoboken to Belleayre day trips as well. I was saying the storm diving south could scew up my forecast for 6-12 in the greens. Nothing wrong with the ‘skills at all.

  2. Drfunker
    wrote on February 27th, 2012 at 4:00 pm  
    3

    Hopin’ that Ullr drops a little lovin’ in the ‘shires too!
    Got more sliding to do.
    Thanks for the knowledge L.H.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  3. Les
    wrote on February 28th, 2012 at 10:10 am  
  4. spanky
    wrote on February 28th, 2012 at 11:43 am  
    5

    Thanks for the update. Any more thoughts on the Friday-Saturday system looming out there?

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  5. Lane
    wrote on February 28th, 2012 at 2:02 pm  
    6

    Thanks for the WX updates Lionel! Nothing short of dead nuts accuracy! Anyways, looking forward to the potential “Gamma” brings with it. May have to play a little hooky from the office on Thursday should this all pan out. Thanks again for your tireless forecasting and updates! -City Dwelling Young Professional

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  6. Adam
    wrote on February 28th, 2012 at 4:29 pm  
    7

    Now I’m feeling the Catskills love! Fingers are crossed!

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  7. Drfunker
    wrote on February 29th, 2012 at 5:00 am  
    8

    This is going to be good! YES!

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  8. Phineas
    wrote on February 29th, 2012 at 10:02 am  
    9

    Local weather has Essex Ctny, NY in the 8-12! Bring it MoNat!!

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  9. powhounddd
    wrote on February 29th, 2012 at 9:12 pm  
    10

    *packs touring gear up*

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  10. オークリー メガネ
    wrote on September 14th, 2012 at 5:43 am  
    11

    Hey there! I realize this is kind of off-topic but I had to ask.
    Does managing a well-established blog such as yours take a large amount of work?
    I am completely new to writing a blog however I do write in my diary daily.
    I’d like to start a blog so I can share my own experience and feelings online. Please let me know if you have any suggestions or tips for brand new aspiring bloggers. Thankyou!

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
Please consider visiting our sponsors.

Leave a Reply

(no login required)

Check for email notifications of new comments (valid email required)        


Next (newer) Post:
Random Post Previous (older) Post:
Home
Stay in touch: Click here to follow us on Twitter. Click here to subscribe for updates to be delivered via RSS. Click here to become a fan on Facebook. Click here to read and share real time weather observations. Learn more over at the account. It's awesome. We promise!