So when the hell will the rest of us get to ski? Weather for the week of 11/30

By:  Lionel Hutz
November 30, 2009 8:31 am | Category: Weather

So nothing against the FIS crew…but I hate you. Not “hate” in the mean way, more like “hate” in the “I’d prob. laugh if you banged your shin” kinda way. But it’s cool. I’m not bitter. I’ll just over-bill you when you hire me as your agent. K?

With my rantings out of the way lets look ahead to the weather this week. At this point there are three elements to the week:
1. Early to Mid-Week normalcy
2. Late Week Storm
3. Weekend Cold Blast

1. Start of the week
The ridge of high pressure that settled over the N/E will ease off the coast as a weak low tracks across the NY/VT/Can. border. Ahead of the low, temps will rise into the mid 40’s tomorrow in the valleys with lower to mid 30s at mid mountain. Light Rain and or Snow will fall as the associated cold front drags across the north county. There is some potential that we’ll see some lake influenced precip follow in the wake of the front Tuesday night. Though recent model runs have backed off on this.
Regardless, after the front clears, temps will fall to more seasonable levels for Wednesday and Thursday. Temps (on mountain) should be mid ’30s for highs with 20’s at night.

2. Late Week Storm.
Another week, another forecasting nightmare on our hands. Recent model runs have been consistent in depicting a gulf of mexico low pressure system “making the turn” and heading up the eastern seaboard.

During the weekend the storm was predicted to take a path which would bring snow to the central/southern VT and the catskills. Now it’s predicted to cut up into western PA and NY. This path brings rain, some of it heavy to the ski areas Thursday and Thursday night. However, there are model variances on this so its too soon to make a call.

3. Cold Blast:
After the storm clears, a strong blast of cold air looks to arrive. While there is variability in just how cold it looks to get, I feel confident in saying that by late Friday night, some real cold air and not just “cool” air will be working its way into the north country. Even if the bulk of the cold air settles into the upper plains (as some models indicate) the N/E mountains could still be looking at single digit lows in the evenings. If the bulk of the cold settles into the N/E (as is also forecasted) it could get a fair amount colder at night if the winds relax. Sadly though the model trend has been to back away from “locking” this cold air in. (Though the 00z and 06z GFS runs do have the cold sticking around for the start of next week).

Also, in the wake of the storm, along with the cold blast, we could see the first real lake effect event of the season. With warm lake temps and real arctic flow this would be significant event. However, the strength of the winds are a concern. While LES banding is possible in high winds, the bands aren’t as organized. Based on the direction of the winds over the lakes, I caution to say that the high peaks could get into the LES. Normally winds are W/NW. However, there are some indications that the winds would have a more SW component. Historically, when there is an SW component to the winds over Erie and Ontario the High Peaks get into the snow more than forecasted. (December 2005 saw this set up). Again however, model trends are starting to move away from favoring the LES.

Update: I’m starting think we’ll see something brewing sunday/monday timeframe. As the upper level trough digs in behind the departing storm, a weak mid level low pressure system could spin up at the base/axis of the trough and swing up along the coast. Looks like it would be a catskill/southern VT/NH type storm if anything. I’ll keep you posted.

Related Stuff:

  1. Weather for the Week of 12/13/09
  2. LH Peek at the Week: Early Spring Storm followed by cold
  3. NEW YEAR UPDATE: Another Holiday Weekend, Another Holiday Weekend Weather Outlook (with no – well ok just a little- booing AND POW)
  4. Weather Blather for the First Week in Feb. (Updated 2/2)
  5. LH Peek at the Week: Rainy frontal passage followed by cold
  6. UPDATED: Weather Blather (Cottonwoods Ed.): Week to start out Stormy

5 Comments

  1. Sam
    wrote on November 30th, 2009 at 4:08 pm  
    1

    Sounds like Ice climbing season will be here by the end of the week….

    /optimism

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  2. Im_a_crappy_skier
    wrote on November 30th, 2009 at 5:41 pm  
    2

    “Looks like it would be a catskill/southern VT/NH type storm if anything. I’ll keep you posted.”

    I’m freakin going outa my mind here looking for day 1……

    If Hunter is open AND said storm appears, $%*$$#$%@ work! I’m beating tracks up the thruway come Monday/Tuesday!

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  3. Greg
    wrote on December 1st, 2009 at 2:38 pm  
    3

    Looks like some LES band setting up right now on the radar. If those make their way to the high peaks are they usually visible on the radar? Or do we have to go by ground observations?

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  4. lionelhutz
    wrote on December 1st, 2009 at 3:11 pm  
    4

    You can see on the radar some of the LES that makes it over to the ‘dacks. Sometimes the radar stops picking it up and you have to add 2+2 from oberservations, composite radar and wind speed/direction.

    I think if you look now you can see some getting into the southern ADK.

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
  5. billski
    wrote on December 2nd, 2009 at 11:46 am  
    5

    Thanks L.
    I’d rather be realistic than delusional. Then again, optimism ever reigns. Most of the domestic duties have cleared from the calendar, save for the snow tires, which is kind of sad… I’d sure would like like to be able to get out sliding in about 2 weeks (I can’t believe I’m saying this…) when my business takes a break… For now, I’ll just cover my eyes for this week and crank out real work so I can run away for some real play…

    I’ll give Ullr a chance to put the freeze on first, then get to the real work!

    Respond to this comment/comment thread
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