Summer Series: June 4-6 (Updated June 3)

SYNOPSIS:

As will be the case with many summer weekends, this weekend will feature a wide cross section of weather. There will be swings from Sunny and Warm, to rainy and humid, to cool and “mountainy” (What- that’s not a real word? Well it is here. In my world it refers to those days often experienced in the Northeastern mountains in the summer. Cool-ish, breezy, with broken clouds, some sun and a passing shower at times….that’s “mountainy”)

Overall the best day looks to be Friday as a departing low pressure clears with the building in of a weak surface high.

A low on Saturday will travel along the NY/Can border and push the surface high out. Rain associated with this system will overspread the North Country with the heaviest amounts being found along the Green spine, ADK and NH mountains, though by the afternoon the rain should be only spotty in nature. Chances for Thunderstorms will be confined to the S/E portions of the Northeast on Saturday as the cold front from the system drives into some rather humid and unstable air. With moderate CAPE values I could see some gusty boomers develop during the day.

“Mountainy” weather will arrive on Sunday as a broad trough works into the region. Stray showers with sun (I know…what a crappy way to describe a day) will prevail in the North, while a disturbance works across the PA/NY border. A pocket of moderate storms or heavy showers could develop with this disturbance. Models have overdone the extent of precip with this system but we’ll address that later.

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FRIDAY:

Primary Concerns: Lingering low level clouds and showers in the morning

Best Location: The entire north country looks to have a great Friday. Only a few pockets of low clouds, stuck to the highest terrain should remain as a concern.

Best Activity: Really anything. Get out and enjoy.

Recreational Forecast:

By Friday morning, any remnants from tonight’s weather will be pushing out east past Maine. A few lingering showers can’t be ruled out as we head into the morning as pockets of instability will remain. However as we head into the afternoon hours, all of the weather should break up and skies should clear.
Clouds friday afternoon

With plenty of sunshine, temps should rise to above seasonal norms. Upper 7os for the ADK, Greens and NH is within reason. 80s for the Catskills and Berks seems similarly within reach.

2m tmps

With moderate dewpoints
2m dpts fri

Friday afternoon should feel just peachy. So get out there.

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SATURDAY:

Primary Concern:
There are two areas of concern on Friday. First and most widespread will be rain associated with a system working just north of the NY border. This system it’s associated cold front should bring some moderate rain through the early part of Saturday to the ADK, Greens, and Whites. The Catskills might miss the steadiest precip but then might be under the gun for risk two… some mixed T-storms firing up in the afternoon.
As the front pushes into some relatively wet and unstable air, there exists a decent risk for gusty thunderstorms across the southern tier of NY, Eastern PA and NJ.
SPC has a good area outlined.
SPC T-Storm risk
Though I’d warp this image slightly and prob. pull it out of VT, extend it up the Hudson valley a little further north and take out out So. NH. based on the dewpoints:
2m dpts sat. afternoon

But regardless – you get the idea.

Best Areas:
Tough call for Saturday. Areas north will see the steadiest rain in the morning while areas to the south have the greatest risk for thunderstorms in the afternoon. The Pocanos might be a nice call as they seem just south enough to avoid the steady rain and west enough to stay out of the highest T-storm danger. The Catskills could similarly split the difference.

Best Activity:
Saturday isn’t a gem but by the afternoon if you want to get outdoors you can. Given the low clouds and stead-ish morning rains I’d look away from the mountains and maybe steer to the lakes. Might be a good day for some paddling in the afternoon in the north country or maybe a nice afternoon bike ride as the system will turn the flow to the NW and knock the dewpoints down quite a bit.
Further south- prob. just watch out for the t-storms and pack an shell in case the morning showers are more widespread.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

As Friday’s surface high moves out, a weak area of low pressure will move in from the great lakes.
Sat. Vort

With a warm front pushed ahead and a tailing surface trough
HPC systems
this is a classic summer system that will bring precip to the north country and t-storms to the southern Northeast.

By Saturday morning, the NAM (which is a little faster than the other models) shows a solid does or precip over the ADK and Greens.
NAM rain

By the afternoon on Saturday however, much of the steady precip should be over for the north country. An unstable west/north west flow will prevail and with pockets of vorticity stray showers can’t be ruled out. A breaking up of the clouds will even be possible.
Sat. Clouds

With temps only reaching into the lower 70s for the North Country and upper 70s for the Catskills if the sun doesn’t come out, Saturday could feel noticeably cooler. Esp. in the afternoon as the NW flow brings some cooler dry air into the region.

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SUNDAY:

UPDATE:
Going to try to put a friday afternoon update whenever I can. Most of the time it will focus on Sunday as the high res. models covering sunday just start to come in on friday afternoon.

As it is, this weekend Sunday is trending wetter for the North Country.

Primary Concern:
Development of a strong system working into the PA/NY border. Embedded T-storms and periods of heavier rain. Models have been expanding on this threat in the last few days and the trend has to be noted.

As per the general update- as of friday afternoon it is starting to look like the low’s effect will be more widespread and generally bring another dose of rain into the North Country on Sunday.

Best Areas:
Old fxt was for areas north of albany. Gotta reverse that as this system looks more widespread. At this time all locations look similary wet. While there is still the chance the upper level low shunts the precip to the south, that is looking increasingly unlikely. Of course this means that the chances are raised that areas in PA and NJ – esp southern PA and NJ would miss out on the rains.

Best Activity:
Given the potential for rain I’m not sure what the best activity would be. Kayaking could be good as rain on saturday and sunday could get the flow rate up. Perhaps fishing? I know those smallmouths get pretty hungry when it rains.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Sunday morning, the clearing Saturday system will have pushed a broad upper level low and surface high into the North Country.
Along the southern edge, a system will develop over the great lakes
Sun system

However, now it looks like this system will move N/E into NY and spread a large batch of precip into the North Country. Sorry for the complete flip flop here but you gotta play the trend here! I’d say that as the system moves n/e it will push steady precip in to the ADK and Green mountains with broken precip further south. By the afternoon precip will be spotty in the catskills with sun and some humid warm air working in. A surface trough will push through late in the day in conjunction with the system. Rising instability paramaters certainly indicate the potential for t-storm develop in the afternoon along with showers and small rain squalls.

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