<a href="https://www.famousinternetskiers.com/weekend-outlook-4th-of-july/" rel="bookmark"> Weekend Outlook: 4th of July

SYNOPSIS:

For the official start to summer the weather couldn’t be better across the Northeast. From Friday through Monday the entire north east should see a large amount of sun. Temps will be just fantastic to start out the weekend and slowly rise into Sunday. By Monday, the heat will be in full effect. With only the slightest chance for a brief shower and some clouds early Saturday morning across the northern portions of VT, NY, NH and ME, this weekend looks like a great one to get outside.

However there is one serious note of caution. This is the 4th of July and that means lots of fireworks going off. With the nice weather, everybody will want to shoot some colorful bombs off. And why not. We beat the British to earn that right! However this has been the hottest June on record for many parts of the Northeast. Coupled with relatively dry weather and a very dry spring this has left many areas with below average soil moisture.

So my biggest concern is somebody’s fireworks setting off some conflagration in the woods. Seriously. It’s been pretty dry so be careful. Extinguish those sparklers, and try not to burn the damn woods down. That would just suck.

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FRIDAY:
The string of great Fridays continues. What are we at 4? 5 in a row? Wow. Nothing like ending the crappy work week with a sun drenched long summer evening right? Nothing kicks the sound of your dumb boss out of your head like a cold beer as the sun sets on a summer Friday night as the fireflies buzz about your yard. (On in my case the 18 foot high rafters of my apartment while I try to fall asleep).

Primary Concerns:
Sun burn and crowds. Look, it sunny and its early July. the UV index will be high. 8-10+. If you are on the water wear some sun block. Try a hat. Sunburn sucks.
As for crowds..save the planet a little bit and try not to get stuck in traffic.

Best Location: Anywhere. It will be a great day across the entire Northeast.

Best Activity: The full spectrum of adventures are there for the taking. Pick one and go.

Recreational Forecast:

On Friday, a ridge will be building out to our west.
Ridge to the west
Upper level winds will flow from the NW down around this ridge. Since the source region for this flow will be central Canada, temps and humidity will hover just around, and if not below seasonal norms.
Highs to about the Catskills will reach into the very low 80s with the ADK, Greens, and NH mountains only reaching the mid to low 70s.
Fri. highs

With the NW flow, dew points will be stunningly low for July.
Fri dwpts
Amazing, RH values will also be low.
Fri. RH

With clear skies,
Fri. clouds

light winds,
Fri. winds

and no chance of rain
Fri. rain

Friday will be another FINE day to get outside and kick off the long weekend.

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SATURDAY:
With a very weak disturbance moving just north/right along of the Can. border the weekends only chance of clouds/rain will present itself. This is a very weak and small disturbance that should only affect the north country. And even then it is a “barely” affect kinda thing. At the very most the early hours of sat. could see some wet clouds in the mountains. By the afternoon they should be gone as the sun reasserts its power.

Primary Concern: Sprinkles out of wet clouds- esp. in the greens- from disturbance along NW flow early in the morning.

Best Areas:
Again- all of nature’s playgrounds will be open for business.

Best Activity: One that’s fun.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

Saturday will mark the turning point between nice easy summer weather and, “dude- it’s hot” summer weather. For most of the day, Saturday the big ridge will remain just to the west, allowing the cooler and drier NW flow to remain.
Sat. Flow
You’ll note that southern areas have the ridge and associated high just beginning to really affect the region around the PA/NY border by the afternoon. This makes sense. The NW flow should hold on a little longer in the high country with warming in the Catskills and south starting later sat. afternoon based on the current location of the ridge, and the predicted direction of movement.

While it will edge close enough to bump temps up a notch or so, the .
Saturday should still feel very comfortable.
Here we see the predicted temps staying in the 80’s to the south to the upper 70’s to the north.
Sat. highs
With the NW flows’ effects still being felt, dew points and Rh values should be pretty low.
Dwpts:
Sat. dwpts

RH
Sat. RH

Skies should be fairly clear as well for much of the day across the NE. As I said before a weak disturbance will move through however and this should create some patchy clouds that move across the region during the day.
Here you can see the predicted pockets of broken clouds early Saturday afternoon. They are hanging just around VT/NH/SE ME.
Sat. Clouds

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SUNDAY:
A building ridge will begin to greatly affect the temperatures across the northeast on Sunday. Sat’s 70’s and lower 80’s will be replaced with mid 80’s and low 90s. Humidity will rise. Sweat will begin to drip again.

Primary Concern:
Heat and sun. Plus fires from fireworks as per above.

Best Areas:
North and elevated. Sunday should remain highly bearable in the northern mountains where the heat will not really build in until later in the day into Monday. The beach is another option. You know- because there’s an ocean to play in.
Your grill would be yet another choice.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Sunday morning the ridge will have reached us.
Sun morning ridge
Cutting off the nice NW flow and bringing in some hot air on a s/sw flow.
Sun. hot 850mb

Combined with some strong sun, Sunday will feel much warmer than Saturday and summer will slap you in the face by the afternoon.
Heat index values will be 90 and and above for much of the NE. ( Think the below map is underdone a bit as well.)
Heat Index.

As the high res data is just coming on on these temps I’m going to truncate sunday’s talk here. The potential heat needs watching and will require an update tomorrow or early saturday. Just be aware that it will start to feel much warmer on sunday and stay that way right into monday!

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