(Updated 6/26) Weekend Outlook for June 25-27

SYNOPSIS:

Similar to the last few weekends, Friday will be a gem across the entire northeast. Thursday’s cold front will clear out the humidity and bring a cool NW flow to much of the NE. Only in the far southern portions will the temps still hover in the upper 80s. The rest of the NE – from the Catskills north will bask under sunny skies with temps in the upper sixties and mid seventies. Following that, Sat will dawn clear with building clouds. A front will scrape the northern portions of the area and aside from building clouds, set off a few showers or thunderstorms. While the total rainfall amts look light the chance for a soaking shower is present to be aware.
Clearing by Sunday, the front should only leave broken clouds in its wake. With a ridge beginning to build to the South temps will nose up on Sunday but I doubt they will break out of the 70s’ across much of the north country.

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FRIDAY:
Another gem!

Primary Concerns: Sunburn. Again I’m serious. We’re at the peak of the sun’s power and with little cloud cover and low humidity the UV index will be set to “lobster” levels. So wear some sun block. Maybe a hat.

Best Location: Not in front of a computer monitor. Again: Go OUTSIDE. The weather will be great all across the NE.

Best Activity: Personally Friday night might be a great time for a long evening bike ride. The long daylight hours and the low humidity will make it feel just awesome along the roads of the Northeast. Maybe go out for a paddle. The water seems to be just crossing the “ice your marbles” levels and with light winds you could have a grand ole time.

Recreational Forecast:

By Friday morning, the today is fast approaching from the west will have cleared the area.
Friday fronts

Behind the front, a vortex over Canada and building Plains ridge will force a WNW flow over the Northeast.
NW flow

With Canada and the Great Lakes as a source region the air mass brought in on the NW flow will have a starkly different feel. With dewpoints in the 40’s and 50’s the air will feel bone dry.
Fri. dwpts

Coupled with temps in the upper sixties to low 80s (far southern sections):
Fri. Highs

and sunny skies:

Clouds

Friday will be a wonderful day to get outside.

Oh- one note: I think it could get a little gusty across the Whites. If you look at the 850mb winds below:
Winds
you’ll notice that the winds pick up from the Whites NE into Maine. Given the location of the vortex in Can. and the departing front, along with the ridge location in the plains, I could see some strong gusty winds along the MTW ridgelines. (What’s new right?). I wouldn’t rule out 30 mph+ gusts if this sets up right.

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SATURDAY:
Saturday will dawn clear with building clouds through the day as a weak front scrapes and bounces along the northern portions of the region. As a result a round of afternoon showers and weak T-storms can’t be ruled out from the Catskills north and east. Temps will stay cool- esp. if the cloud cover builds early.

Primary Concern:
I’d say my primary concern for Saturday is an afternoon t-storm set off by the passage of a front. At this time there is some waffling in the data regarding the likelihood and strength of any such storms so I’ll just be cautious and say watch the skies from the afternoon on.

Best Areas: There isn’t one area I think that will do “best” here. I’d maybe stay to the east- NH-so the threat of showers/tstorms holds off till much later in the day.

Best Activity:
With a cool morning and low humidity, along with still below average soil moisture:
Soil Moist. Anom.
I’d say a hike Saturday morning might be very nice.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Saturday morning, the nice ridge of weather will start to be bumped by a weak front pushing down from the NW.
Fronts- Sat.

As we move into the afternoon hours, the front will push into upstate NY and VT.
Front RH

Along with increased clouds (thicker over the ADK and VT)
Sat. afternoon clouds

The front should set off a few showers across the region.
While there is a chance for T-storms, looking at the latest CAPE forecasts
CAPE
doesn’t support the conclusion that these T-storms will be damaging or severe. That doesn’t mean there is no danger however- lightning is always a MAJOR hazard in the mountains and should always be taken really seriously. Severe T-Storm or not.

Beside the front, Sat. looks to be a nice day.
The approaching front will turn the winds to the SW
Sat. winds

And accordingly. temps will rise into the 70’s and 80s (with a few pockets in the hills staying cooler – esp. if the cloud cover is on the thicker side).
Sat highs

However, surface dewpoints will stay low and thus keep it comfy.
Sat. dwpts

All in all, don’t let the front get the better of you. Get out on sat. Esp. the am. Plus, there is some good data out there (with history to back it up) that this front just blows itself apart and only leads to an increase in clouds. I’ll update you regardless.

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SUNDAY:
UPDATE

Looks like sunday is going to be warmer than previously predicted. I think the ADK and greens will get up into the mid 70s and have partly sunny skies after the noon hour. Prior to that I think it will be mostly cloudy with a possible lingering shower.

South in the catskills I think it will get pretty warm. Upper 80s are possible in some valleys. Sun will predominate by the afternoon. Isolated convection is also possible but most of the dynamics look to hold off until the evening.

East in to NH we’ll see conditions similar to those in the NEK.

THe further south you go the warmer it will be. The Poconos will border on downright hot.

Now, while there is some chance for an isolated T-storm all over the NE in the afternoon, the real fireworks should and most likely will hold off until the night time. With the chance for a big boy growing as we move from sunday into monday.

OLDER
Sunday should be nice day in the wake of Saturday’s front. Though rather sharply split with regards to temps/dewpoints between the north and south.

Primary Concern:
Lingering clouds enhanced by by a warm front pushing north. Possible afternoon convection along the frontal boundary

Best Areas:
Given that a warm front will push in from the south, I think the best place to be will be up in the hills where the temps and dewpoints should remain more comfortable.

RECREATIONAL FORECAST:

By Sunday, the weak cold front will have exited the region stage east. Behind it, a warm front will begin to work north. Skies should be fairly high with broken clouds in the 4-5k range.

With the warm front pushing north temps will climb into the 80’s at least as far as the southern Greens and ADK. North of there, where the front doesn’t actually look to reach, temps should remain cooler- say the low 70’s.

Similarly dewpoints to the south of the warm front will be in the upper 60s. North they will be in the 50s. That’s a noticeable difference.

As for precip, the warm front looks pretty dry right now though some signs point to the potential for convection on its southern edge- like say the Catskills and Berks.

I’ve held off on model maps here because I think a lot has to be worked out for Sunday. I’ll update this tomorrow once we get some better data.

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